
Downside Overshoot Underway; Quo Vadis Capital May Investing Letter
The market fears recession is imminent, should you sell now?

The market fears recession is imminent, should you sell now?

“Professional investors don’t believe that inflation can be tamed without destroying economic demand; that’s why you’re seeing discretionary stocks under so much pressure,” says Quo Vadis Capital President John Zolidis.
Columbia University Securities Analysis Rabbit Proof Fence April 7 2022 website version

Analysts and economists are convinced that Fed rate hikes are sending us into a recession. Meanwhile, every retailer and restaurant company we know is hiring as fast as possible. Who is going to be wrong?

John Zolidis, president of the New York-based equity research firm Quo Vadis Capital said greater transparency for US auditors would “improve investor confidence in US-listed Chinese companies” after a bruising year when the valuations of large internet giants including Alibaba and Tencent have slashed over 40 per cent following Beijing’s regulatory moves to break up their monopoly power.

“The value of a company is based on its future earnings and cash flows, adjusted for its assets and liabilities (the balance sheet), and discounted for each business’ risk profile and the time horizon to produce expected earnings and cash flow,” Zolidis said in a note on Friday. “The location of the exchange where the shares trade does not figure into this calculation (provided liquidity and investor safeguards are roughly equivalent).”
“In our view, there is enough common ground and shared interest here to support a compromise resolution,” Zolidis said. “Accordingly, we see a compromise being reached that serves regulators in both markets and maintains existing U.S. listings for the vast majority of Chinese companies.”

“FL needs to demonstrate that it can still comp and grow earnings even in the face of lower Nike allocations,” Zolidis wrote, adding that he believes the retailer can see success in the long term, given its “valuation, sentiment, cash flow, and the potential for news flow to improve incrementally from here.”

Soaring inflation is eating into consumer spending. The Fed is about to tighten the screws on the economy and growth. And now Putin is trying to put the Soviet Union back together.

The question is “whether the fraud was hiding a permanently flawed business, or if it was lying on top of something legitimate that had long-term viability,” says John Zolidis, president of the New York-based equity research firm Quo Vadis Capital. Zolidis says Luckin’s shares are “attractively valued given the overhang of fraud”.
Luckin Coffee (LKNCY) ValueX Klosters Presentation Feb 3 2022 SZ