Newsletters

Walmart earnings: Amazon Prime Day was a good thing for Walmart

John Zolidis, president of Quo Vadis, says his perspective on Walmart hasn’t changed in two years.

“Walmart is well into the process of transforming a traditional, terrestrial retail model into a transactional-model optimized for a digitally-equipped consumer,” he wrote. “This new model leverages Walmart’s historical advantages including scale, supply-chain, low-price positioning, and store locations with digital capabilities highlighted by grocery pickup, a vast selection, a portfolio of new owned brands, and delivery.”

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Shake Shack Beats McDonald’s

Shake Shack’s big gains on Wall Street have surprised some analysts who follow the fast food service sector. John Zolidis is one of them, as he isn’t impressed with the company’s most recent earnings report and guidance.

“Shake Shack (SHAK) reported figures that were generally in-line with our expectations for upside on the top-line but weakness in margins,” he says. “The company reduced its full-year restaurant level margin target to ‘approximately 23%’ from ‘near the low end of 23%-24%’. The company didn’t justify this change, which was made concurrent with lifting the outlook for total sales. However, we believe a factor is the ongoing sequential weakening of new units, which missed our assumption for the quarter.”

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August Newsletter: Cut Thin & Win

Summary: Threats to economic growth remain minor relative to underlying positives, in our opinion. Last week, markets fell as the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates, but signaled no future cuts. This was followed by Thursday’s announcement that the U.S. would impose a 10% tariff on $300B of Chinese imports. Both events served to stoke fears of slowing global growth. Our view remains more constructive due to our focus on the strong consumer (unemployment is at 50-year low), the innovative nature of U.S. companies and industries, and favorable conditions for access for capital, among both private and public companies. We continue to see the tariff and trade “war” talk as mostly noise relative to economic momentum.

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McDonald’s And Starbucks’ Two Most Important Advantages At Home And Abroad

“Revenue, and EPS upside and a guide-up all serve to support the stock’s 13-year high valuation,” said John Zolidis, following the release of strong financial results last week for Starbucks. “We continue to like the shares long, for the reasons we have reiterated (global growth, ROIC profile, FCF, return of capital, innovation in product and technology) although the name is not for the valuation sensitive and we do expect a period of consolidation at some point.”

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Chipotle earnings: Stock hits all-time high but questions arise about how long growth will last

“The way we see the shares here is that the debate about whether the brand can recover from food safety issues in an environment of increased competition is over, and the stock performance now turns on the whether the rate of recovery can exceed expectations currently factored into estimates and valuation,” wrote John Zolidis, president of Quo Vadis Capital.

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July Newsletter: Longest Ever Bull Market Means Nothing

Summary: We’ve hit the longest economic expansion and bull market in U.S. history, but it can continue, in our opinion. The market endured a terrible growth scare over October-December last year and again pulled back during May on concerns about tariffs. These worries were ultimately overwhelmed by a combination of ongoing strong economic conditions, and a Federal Reserve that appears willing to act to support equity prices. The possible resolution of tariffs is helping this morning. The duration of economic growth and the bull market are often cited by those predicting a downturn, but current conditions remain favorable, in our opinion.

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Target handily tops estimates as online, in-store traffic grows

“Target has every reason to be failing right now,” wrote John Zolidis of Quo Vadis Capital in New York. “Its largest competitors are spending aggressively to take share. The weather is always bad.” But the retailer keeps outperforming, he continued, because it has a strategy “designed for this environment.” (It doesn’t hurt that a lot of other retailers are doing so poorly, he adds.)

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May Newsletter: Trade War Torpedoes Market’s Advance

Summary: Trade-related disputes and uncertainty will not derail economic growth, in our opinion. The market (the S&P500) has given back nearly 5% after hitting all time high levels on May 1 in response to the back-and-forth imposition of import tariffs between China and the U.S. The world’s two largest economies bickering cannot be construed as a positive. However, contextualizing this dispute suggests that the risk to world economic growth is likely overstated, in our opinion. Our base assumption is that the negotiating process will cause some disruption but not overturn the current favorable momentum of the U.S. consumer and U.S. economy nor reverse the share gains of companies with superior strategies or technologies.

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Free Coffee And An App Won’t Help Luckin Beat Starbucks

Meanwhile, equity analysts are already concerned with Luckin’s valuation. John Zolidis is one of them. “We had a chance to go through the company’s F-1 filing (equivalent of an S-1), says Zolidis. “If we are doing the math right, the company is seeking a $3.5-$3.9B valuation with last year’s revenues of only $125M and a full-year EBIT loss of $238M,” he said. “We get that LK has super-fast unit growth and it using promos to drive trial, get downloads for its app, and sign-ups for the loyalty program.”

That would certainly help the company burn a great deal of cash, but it won’t make it profitable. “Our initial conclusion is that it will difficult for this company to turn the current operating model into a profitable and cash generating business,” adds Zolidis.

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